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Probabilistic Aspects of Life Prediction

Johnson WS

This STP contains originally presented at the Symposium on Probabilistic Aspects of Life Prediction sponsored by ASTM International Committee E8 on Fatigue and Fracture in November of 2002. The purpose of this symposium was to create a forum for assessment of the state-of-the-art in incorporating these uncertainties and inherent scatter into systematic probabilistic methods for conducting life assessment.

As fatigue and fracture mechanics approaches are used more often for determining the useful life or inspection intervals for complex structures, realization sets in that all factors are not well known or characterized. In fact, inherent scatter exists in initial material quality and in material performance. Projections of component usage in determination of applied stresses are inexact and subject to much discrepancy between projected and actual usage. All of these factors need to be accounted for to determine a distribution of potential lives based on a combination of the aforementioned variables.

The papers in this STP are grouped into probabilistic modeling, material variability and applications. Specific topics addressed by the 17 papers in this collection include:

  • probabilistic fracture mechanics, crack growth
  • fatigue life variability, crack nucleation
  • time-dependent reliability of ceramic components
  • probabilistic computational simulation
  • fatigue life variability prediction
  • pressurized thermal shock
  • corrosion risk assessment of aircraft structures
  • software framework for probabilistic fatigue life assessment
  • probabilistic fracture mechanics concepts to estimate the design fatigue life and reliability
  • coils and magnet intercoil components
  • assessing fatigue crack growth reliability of railroad tank cars
  • Weibull analysis
  • modeling variability
  • probabilistic fracture toughness
  • fatigue life distributions under a spectrum load
  • microstructure-based fatigue crack growth (FCG)

The papers in this STP provide useful information to engineers and researchers in a variety of industries including aerospace, transportations, construction, and materials.