Roland Berger: Euro Rail Industry Expects Strong Growth into 2016
September 19, 2008 // Published as a news service by IHS
The European Rail Industry (UNIFE) will see strong growth patterns for the entire rail supply industry into 2016, according to a recent study conducted by Roland Berger and commissioned by UNIFE.
"Our study shows robust growth will continue globally for the foreseeable future," said Michael Clausecker, UNIFE director general.
"The study's findings prove that politicians, investors, business leaders and the public are realizing the importance and benefits of investing in rail as a sustainable means of transport.
"Not only that, but they see rail investment as a means to facilitate greater mobility, sustainably tackle climate change and as a proven stimulant for increasing economic growth."
Authors of the study say its aim was to establish a commonly accepted market view of the rail industry in order to deliver a quantifiable nine-year forecast for the entire sector.
Andreas Schwilling, a Roland Berger strategy consultant and co-author of the study, said results were compiled from a survey of market experts in rolling stock, railway infrastructure and services in 50 countries, representing 95% of the global market for railway technologies. "This is the kind of information that operators, suppliers, investors, financial analysts and political decision-makers have long been calling for, and here in this study we have delivered it for them," he said.
Of the study's findings, Schwilling said from 2006 to 2007, the industry witnessed a nominal growth rate of 9%, the total accessible world market leaping from €71.8 billion in 2005 to €86 billion in 2007.
"What's clear is that from the data we've analyzed, we're seeing and will continue to see the rail supply industry performing well in the coming years with 2.5% to 3% growth per annum being added until 2016," Schwilling said. "By then, we expect the market volume to total €111 billion."
Clausecker said high-speed train orders will increase by 2% to 2.5% - year on year - until 2016. "At the same time, we're also going to see services increase by similar figures," he said. "We see huge possibilities opening up, and high-speed rollout will be the area to watch, as it offers in many cases, a real alternative to air and road transport."
Maintenance and replacement orders will be where the rail supply industry will see healthy orders. Clausecker said 70% of rolling stock orders will be directed at the replacement of old stock, while 80% of infrastructure orders will replace same.
What's clear though, said Clausecker, is that the locomotive and rolling stock market will expand significantly in emerging industrial nations and that it will be more pronounced in Eastern Europe. "There will be growth rates of almost 7% yearly in this segment in this market by 2016," he said. Next up is the Middle East and Africa with a figure of 6% yearly and an increase of 5.5% in the Asia-Pacific region.
"Urbanization, the changing global economy, the demand for greater mobility and, of course, environmental commitments and concerns are evidenced in the study's findings," said Martin Streichfuss, who co-authored the study.
"The NAFTA [North American Free Trade Agreement] market is currently the second largest accessible market for the Europe's rail supply industry. However, with the emergence of mega-cities - especially in the Far East and Asia-Pacific region - this will see this growing region surpassing the NAFTA market with ease by 2016."
Clausecker said if there is one simple key message to be interpreted from the study it is this: "Rail is going through not only a global rollout renaissance, but also a fascinating technological revival."
For more information, go to www.unife.org.
Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants.