EU Pressing for 'Ambitious, Comprehensive' Climate Change Agreement

October 13, 2009 // Published as a news service by IHS

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EU's Position on Climate Change
The EU is pressing for an ambitious and comprehensive agreement that will prevent global warming from reaching the dangerous levels - more than 2°C above the pre-industrial temperature - that are projected by the scientific community if the world continues with business as usual.

Scientific evidence shows that, to put global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on a trajectory that is compatible with respecting this temperature ceiling, industrialized countries need to cut their emissions to 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020, while developing countries should limit their rapid emissions growth to around 15-30% below projected business-as-usual levels in 2020.

Furthermore, global emissions need to peak before 2020 and then be cut by at least 50% of 1990 levels by 2050.

The EU has committed unconditionally to cut its emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, and is implementing a comprehensive climate and energy package (see IP/09/628) as well as a program of energy efficiency measures to achieve this.

Moreover, it has committed to scale up its emissions cut to 30%, on the condition that other industrialized countries agree to make comparable reductions and economically more advanced developing countries contribute adequately to a global deal.

However, emission targets put forward by industrialized countries so far add up to a reduction of only 9-16.5% below 1990 levels by 2020 (see Annex), while the big emerging economies have offered little in terms of concrete action to control their emissions.

On Sept. 10, the EC proposed a global blueprint for increasing international finance to help developing countries mitigate their emissions and adapt to climate change (see IP/09/1297). This gives a basis for the European Council to take an EU position on financing at the end of October.

Status of Negotiations
Despite consensus at the United Nations climate change conference in Poznan, Poland, last December that international negotiations should be shifted into higher gear, progress at the three negotiating sessions this year has been slow.

The negotiations are being conducted on two parallel tracks. On one track, the 192 parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, which include the U.S., are discussing long-term cooperative action to combat climate change. On the other track, the 184 parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which do not include the U.S., are discussing post-2012 emission reduction commitments for industrialized countries.

According to the EC, this division of the negotiations into two tracks is a complicating factor, and it would be desirable for the tracks to be merged sooner rather than later to prepare the way for a single agreement in Copenhagen.

Indeed, there are already clear signs of the convention track emerging as the main focus, while negotiations under the Kyoto track are practically stalemated.

The EU wants to ensure, however, that all of the substance of the Kyoto track discussions - on further emission reductions by industrialized countries and on other key issues, such as reform of the international carbon market and emission accounting rules for the forestry sector - is kept on the table as the two tracks come together.

Results of Bangkok Meetings
At meetings in Bangkok that ended Oct. 9, the parties managed to streamline, rationalize and restructure large parts of the negotiating text, as well as increase understanding of various proposals up for negotiations.

However, negotiations did not lead to any major substantive compromises nor convergence of views. Looking beyond Bangkok, the EC said the amount of substantive technical and political work in the eight weeks before the start of the Copenhagen conference presents a formidable political challenge.

For the EU, the essential elements of an agreement are:

• Binding emission reductions by all industrialized countries based on comparable efforts.
• Appropriate action by developing countries to limit emissions.
• A framework for action on adaptation to climate change.
• Action to reduce deforestation and forest degradation and promote sustainable forest management in tropical regions.
• Updated accounting rules for emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry.
• An expanded international carbon market to generate financial support for developing countries and promote cost-effective emission cuts.
• Provision of international public finance to developing countries to supplement financial flows from the carbon market and domestic investment.
• A comprehensive package on technology cooperation and funding to accelerate development of a low-carbon global economy.

The EU wants the Copenhagen agreement to be a single legally binding instrument that builds on and takes forward the Kyoto Protocol. The agreement needs to be ratified by governments in time for it to enter force on Jan. 1, 2013. Needless to say, the EU will honor all its commitments and obligations under Kyoto, independently of the outcome of Copenhagen.

The Iimportance of Copenhagen
The window of opportunity to prevent global warming from reaching dangerous levels of 2°C or more above the pre-industrial temperature, which could trigger irreversible and catastrophic changes in the global environment, is closing fast. The average global temperature is already almost 0.8°C higher than in pre-industrial times, and some research indicates that past and present emissions may have already made a further rise of as much as 1°C inevitable.

The EC said this means that Copenhagen is almost certainly the last chance to get global emissions onto a progressively lower-carbon track that can prevent climate change from reaching 2°C or more. It has been 12 years since agreement was reached on the Kyoto Protocol, so Copenhagen is a rare opportunity for global action. With world emissions still rising steadily, waiting another decade or more to act will be too late to prevent dangerous climate change.

Background
International negotiations were launched in December 2007 to draw up a U.N. agreement on tackling climate change for the period after 2012, when key provisions of the Kyoto Protocol will expire.

The negotiations are due to be concluded at the Copenhagen climate conference on Dec. 7-18. Three negotiating sessions at an official level have been held so far this year, all in Bonn, Germany.

The second-to-last preparatory sessions for Copenhagen took place in Bangkok from Sept. 28 to Oct. 9; the last such sessions will be held in Barcelona on Nov. 2-6.

For more information, see the EC's web page, A post-2012 global climate regime: the EU's contribution.

Annex: Pledges of Annex I Countries as of Sept. 7, 2009

Source: European Commission (EC).