WRI: Developed Countries' GHG Reductions Fall Short of Climate Goal
October 26, 2009 // Published as a news service by IHS
Commitments made by developed countries to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, when added together, fall short of stabilizing global temperatures at a level that averts dangerous climate change, according to the World Resources Institute (WRI).
The WRI analysis, Comparability of Annex I Emission Reduction Pledges, examines pledges made by the European Union (EU), Japan, Russia, New Zealand, Australia, Norway, Belarus, Ukraine and Canada.
Also included is the U.S. emission reductions based on the American Clean Energy and Security Act passed by the U.S. House of Representatives in June.
WRI's analysis found that commitments by these industrialized countries to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change would result in a 10% to 24% reduction from 1990 levels of global emissions by 2020.
Experts said this is less than the 25% to 40% range of emission reductions that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change claims would be necessary for stabilizing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) at 450 parts per million (ppm), a level associated with a 52% risk of overshooting a 2 degrees Celsius goal.
Both the G8 and the Major Economies Forum recently agreed to a goal of limiting average global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels, experts said.
The report, which covers pledges by countries responsible for 98% of developed country emissions, uses three metrics to compare country commitments - per capita reductions, emission intensity reductions and absolute reductions.
The 10% to 24% reduction is based on the inclusion or omission of factors, such as changes in land use, forestry data and low vs. high pledges.
Other findings include:
- The choice of metrics used by countries (such as whether to include offsets, land-use change or forestry emissions) can alter their emission reduction calculations.
- High regulatory standards and accounting rules will be critical to ensure that international emission reductions are real and additional.
Source: World Resources Institute (WRI).