IPCC Report Confirms EU Call for Deep Cuts in Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

May 4, 2007 // Published as a news service by IHS

The consensus report from IPCC's Working Group III confirms the European Union (EU) analysis that global emissions must start to fall within the next 15 years and then be cut to around half of 1990 levels by 2050 if the world is to have a fair chance of preventing irreversible and possibly catastrophic global changes.

The report projects that unless urgent action is taken, global emissions in 2030 will be 25% to 90% higher than today, making it all but certain that global warming will reach dangerous levels.

"This important IPCC report confirms that significant global reductions in greenhouse gases are essential and urgent," said Stavros Dimas, EC environment commissioner. "It recognises that the technologies and policies to achieve these cuts exist today, so there is no excuse for waiting. Its conclusions fully support the EU's view that developed countries must reduce emissions to 30% below 1990 levels by 2020, and global emissions must be halved by 2050, if we are to have a good chance of limiting global warming to no more than 2°C above the pre-industrial level. It is now time for the rest of the international community to follow our lead and commit to ambitious reduction targets. Negotiations on a new global climate change agreement must be launched at the next U.N. ministerial conference in December."

The EU has led global action to limit and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases since the early 1990s. More than 30 policies and measures - including the ground-breaking EU Emissions Trading Scheme - have been implemented at the EU level through the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP), set up by the EC in 2000.

The EU's leadership on climate change has been further strengthened by the integrated climate and energy package that was presented by the EC in January and fully endorsed by heads of state and governments at the March European Council. This landmark package sets out a range of cost-effective measures to reduce emissions, improve energy security and increase competitiveness, as well as the EU's proposals for a new global agreement intended to limit global warming to no more than 2°C above the pre-industrial level. There is strong scientific evidence that a temperature rise beyond this threshold would greatly increase the risk of dangerous climate change.

The Working Group III report, Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, assesses the latest scientific knowledge on the mitigation of climate change and constitutes the final part of the IPCC's forthcoming fourth assessment report. The latest report's main findings are as follows:

• Without action, global greenhouse gas emissions will be 25% to 90% above current levels by 2030, with the highest growth levels in the transport sector. Two-thirds or more of the global emissions growth will come from developing countries, but per capita emissions in 2030 will still be substantially higher in developed countries than in developing nations.
• Limiting average global warming to 2°C above the pre-industrial level will require by 2050 a cut in greenhouse gas emissions of more than 50% of current levels.
• Such low emissions scenarios can be achieved at a cost of less than 3% of global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030, a fraction of the overall growth over this period.
• Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will cut air pollution, and therefore also its associated health costs, improve energy security and increase employment. Near-term health benefits from air pollution control can offset a substantial part of the cost of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.
• The technologies and potential to reduce emissions exists in all main emitting sectors - energy supply, transport, buildings, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste - in both developed and developing countries.
• Long-term targets for stabilising the global temperature can be achieved using a portfolio of existing commercially available technologies as well as technologies in the pipeline. What are needed are sufficient incentives to develop and deploy them. Establishing a price for carbon creates such an incentive and can be achieved through taxes, charges and tradable permit systems.

Background
The IPCC assesses the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant for understanding the risk of man-made climate change. Its regular reports are based mainly on peer-reviewed and published scientific and technical literature. The assessments are produced by three working groups that bring together hundreds of leading experts from around the world. The reports thus represent the most authoritative global scientific consensus on climate change. Research projects funded under the EU's Framework Programmes on Research, as well as under research programmes by individual member states, have contributed significantly to these reports.

More information is available on the web site for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the EU web site on Climate Change.

Source: European Commission.